Geopolitical decision intelligence
Monitoring tells you the world moved.
We tell you what it does to your operations.
- 01Ask in plain language.
- 02Get three weighted scenarios — in minutes.
- 03See the assumptions and indicators behind each.
- 04Watch them re-scored as new evidence arrives.
Every assessment is dated, stamped before the event, and graded against what actually happened. Including the misses.
The gap
Everyone collects. The processing is the difference.
The industry sells collection — feeds, dashboards, more sources — and stops exactly where the hard part begins: what this means, what happens next, and who stands behind the judgement when it turns out wrong.
Collection
What the industry sells
Processing
What we sell
- CollectionAn alert tells you the world moved.
- Processing01An assessment tells you what moves next, how likely, and what it costs.
- CollectionA dashboard shows a score.
- Processing02A dated assessment shows the reasoning, the sources, and the uncertainty.
- CollectionA report is written once.
- Processing03A judgement is scored against reality — and the score is public.
The run
What happens after you ask.
The same four steps every time, and every one of them is on the record afterwards — which is what makes an assessment arguable rather than merely delivered.
Question
Which of our sites is exposed first, and how much warning will we get?
01
The question, in your words
A decision is described the way it is actually discussed — no query language, no taxonomy to learn first, and no analyst to brief before anything starts.
02
Resolved against what is held
The question is answered against the signal record and open sources, read through a domain graph of the actors involved and the ways they are connected. Collection is the input here, not the product.
03
Simulated, then pruned
Candidate paths are generated, scored against the graph and against each other, and most are discarded. What survives is weighted rather than asserted — and the weighting is the part that has to be defended later.
04
Three weighted futures
What comes out is three paths with their weights, the assumptions under each, the indicators that would precede it and the conditions that would invalidate it.
Five layers
Measure. Explain. Simulate. Forecast.
Monitoring tells you the world moved. These are the layers after that.
- 01
Causal intelligence
A live domain graph across the domains it covers. How cyber pressure becomes political instability. How sanctions become supply shock.
- 02
Actor simulation
A multi-actor adaptive network tracking what key players are doing, and what they are likely to do next.
- 03
Three weighted futures
Every situation resolves into scenario paths with probabilities, conversion thresholds, and the indicators that precede each path.
- 04
Strategic forecast
Long-horizon systemic risk projection with explicit confidence bands — calibrated, dated, and graded against reality.
- 05
Ask the system
Interrogate any score, region or scenario in plain language. Sources, timestamps and stated uncertainty on every claim.
Who it is for
Four people ask us four different questions.
Head of security
Which of our sites is exposed first, and how much warning will we get?
Chief financial officer
What is the cost of this going the wrong way, and how confident are you?
Supply chain
Which route or supplier breaks next, and what is the leading indicator?
Public sector buyer
Can I defend this assessment internally if it turns out to be wrong?
Trust
Where the system declines to answer.
Everyone in this category promises coverage. Publishing where the system abstains is the harder claim, and for a buyer who personally carries the consequence of a bad assessment it is the one that decides the purchase.
Built in Stockholm. Runs in the EU. Your questions and your data stay under European jurisdiction — which decides who can compel access to them, and is the part of "sovereign" that survives a procurement review.
- Every claim carries its sources, its timestamp and its stated uncertainty.
- Assessments are stamped before the event, not annotated after it.
- Grading is published whether it flatters the system or not.
Request access
Tell us the decision you are facing.
We will show you the record behind an assessment in that area — including where it was wrong.